RB_CH04_Q017. Basketball down two points six seconds three-point shot

Basketball! Your team is down two points, and there are a few seconds left before the buzzer. You can take a shot from three-point land or move up and take one from two-point land. Historically, you have a 40% probability of getting the shot in from three-point land and a 70% probability of getting the shot in from two-point land. Should you try for the three-point shot (a certain win if you make it), or should you try for the two-point shot? Note that a two-point produces a tie and puts you into overtime. We assume your team has a fifty-fifty chance of winning in overtime.